Potentially Profound Phrases — RD2L Season 24, Week 7
The second-to-last week was upon us last week, and with it, more mathematical eliminations from playoffs were brought. Who still stands a chance? Who is already guaranteed a spot in playoffs? Who could ever possibly replace Matieu as head admin?! I don’t know, but if I find out that any of you bastards let HullCity stand-in for your team, I hope you lose. As with prior weeks I’ll be doing a series MVP, LVP, and a prediction… although realistically, the predictions don’t matter as much by now.
A2 vs Cuh (1–1)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251858714
I don’t know what the hell is wrong with Invoker players. I really don’t. A2’s draft game 1 has already shot itself in the foot by having an Invoker/AM/Axe tri -core (also known as the “pray to god we hit 40 minutes” strat), but then Eco decides to follow up with his AM by building a fucking Midas. What? I swear it’s like people buy Midas as a sort of fast-forward; they just sort of meekly hide and sit back until they have eight additional items and then they’re actually willing to play dota. News flash, guys, Midas when you already have one insanely greedy core is… well, even greedier. Axe is already dogshit, but this kind of situation makes his game near impossible. Cuh’s team easily took advantage of the breathtaking stupidity coming out from the Dire side, and since all of their heroes were capable of doing something without becoming a millionaire beforehand, they just ran straight over A2. Take this as a lesson to either stop fucking building Midas or stop fucking picking AM.
Looks like A2 took one of those two lessons game 2, giving Eco Invoker again alongside another damned Midas, but this time Cuh stack has decided to play with a handicap and picked an Arc Warden 4. I don’t understand what the fuck the logic on this pick could possibly be, but it appears to have eventually bitten Cuh in the ass. The net-worth graph shows a huge, steady lead for Cuh team, followed by one bad fight into a near-immediate loss. Honestly, based on the heroes and the graph as well as the fact that they just did not take any damned objectives, I think Cuh stack was just fucking around. They had so much fun in the early game with their slayer heroes that they forgot to actually, y’know, end the game, and finally at the 50 minute mark A2’s draft creaks and groans its way to a won fight, having drafted a PL alongside the Midas this time. I’m frankly a little irritated that A2 won this game, but both of these teams are in playoffs already, so it doesn’t matter too much.
MVP: Waffz doesn’t afraid of anything.
LVP: Eco’s Invoker playstyle exemplifies everything I hate about Midas. For fuck’s sake, if you have a hard-carry on your team, play a little more active.
PREDICTIONS: Given that Cuh appears to be missing… well, Cuh, I think they did pretty well. A2’s drafting has been so insanely fucking greedy in this series that I am begging someone to knock them out of playoffs by just picking a hero that does damage before 20 minutes.
DrPizzakiller vs Logical (1–1)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6248080939
Speaking of effectively useless drafts that expect too much out of a single hero, in this game 1 we have the most overworked Outworld Devourer I’ve seen in awhile. This man has to haul around a Lifestealer for most of the game, which would be fine if he didn’t additionally have to haul around the worthless carcasses of an Omniknight, a Tidehunter, and a Windrunner. None of these heroes do a fucking thing. There’s some control, I guess, but that’s it. That net-worth graph is an OD desperately scrabbling for any hint of control over a game where literally every other lane lost. One of these days I’ll see a game where Sqween had an impact. It’s a pretty impressive achievement to exclusively pick heroes that you can play one handed and still fail.
And now I’ll have to eat my words, because in game 2 that might be today! He’s playing Chaos Knight this game, at least, which requires a few more brain cells — baby steps. Of much greater importance to this game is the 24th pick Huskar, which presumably scared the enemy Night Stalker so badly that they threw the Sand King mid instead to try and minimize the damage. It didn’t help — when you’re going first item Vanguard on a Night Stalker, you’re down cataclysmic. Logical team didn’t have enough time or space to really get going. Shit happens.
MVP: Logical is a man to be feared even when he’s having an off game.
LVP: I feel bad for shitting on Sqween constantly, but he really does deserve it.
PREDICTIONS: Who knows. They’re both guaranteed playoffs, but these drafts are so wildly inconsistent that I’m not sure they say anything.
Wife vs BMTS (2–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6253568455
Holy fucking hell, D-Man played in this series! For those of you who haven’t been playing RD2L for all that long, D-Man is the most terrifying man to have ever played the division. I heard one time D-Man got cut off at a red light and he tore the guy’s car in half. He just has to ask and women take off their clothes for him. He was weaned on chicken milk and cocaine. One time the barista at his local Starbucks screwed up his name on a cup — scientists are still analyzing the splatter pattern, it was a form of abstract art. Only men of great willpower can meet his eyes; lesser men are incinerated. One time I was on the same continent as D-Man, and even then, I could feel the warmth of his presence.
In any case, this game 1 isn’t particularly impressive. Wife ended up picking a Medusa, and won his lanes handily enough that BMTS’s team didn’t have a hell of a lot of time in order to try and finish the game early… nor do they really have the tools. I sort of question the last pick Ursa, but by the time you have a Tidehunter and an Invoker as your other two cores vs a Medusa you have to pick something that covers far, far too many bases. He did his best, but unfortunately his draft (and the players) didn’t really allow him to do much.
I spoke last week about how the next time I saw a Midas on a position 4 hero, I was going to do something unspeakable to the player in question. That time, friends, has come again, where a position 4 player decided that he was far enough ahead that he didn’t need to do shit like “be useful”. Funny thing is, he was playing Ogre, and he was correct. BMTS’s team bizarrely went for a very similar draft to the previous one, where once again they have at least two heroes who aren’t going to do a whole hell of a lot and BMTS himself is put under a lot of strain trying to carry the game. I honestly don’t know why I’ve seen so many damned Invokers so far in the span of 3 series. I want people to stop thinking they’re good at that hero. Wife’s draft this game managed to maintain a decent lead with earlier heroes for long enough to be able to close out the game.
MVP: D-Man didn’t win a single game this week but he has entirely won my heart.
LVP: BMTS might not have whooped Too E Zee’s ass for building a Midas on a 4, but I’m nowhere near as merciful.
PREDICTIONS: I think with the 2–0 this week BMTS needs to pick up a single game next week to be able to qualify for playoffs — they’ll probably be fine. Wife has secured his playoff spot, much to Wife’s confusion.
Redlegoguy4 vs Iceyeti(1–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251866613
As the season draws on, captains get more and more careless about ticketing their games — sometimes forgetting to ticket their game 2, or even their game 1. In either case, this game was a profound disaster for Iceyeti. This game is a classic example of a problem that Void can have — namely, if he’s forced into going multiple defensive items instead of straight damage, the hero has awful impact on the game. Void’s whole thing is that he wants to use his ult and then leisurely beat the shit out of anyone hapless enough to be caught inside that. When the enemy team has ways to either disable Void pre-chrono or prevent him from doing that, his game gets quite difficult — which, of course, sounds obvious as fuck, but it’s important to know that if you have to build more than one defensive item on Void you’ve effectively already lost. The rest of his team could not compensate.
MVP: Redlegoguy has a ballsy E-blade rush. Wew.
LVP: Both captains for not ticketing their fucking game.
PREDICTIONS: I predict that one of these bastards will not ticket their series in this upcoming week.
Bearcat0611 vs Muggsy (2–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251854966
“Guys, hear me out. What if-” Longoria cuts himself off as he takes yet another hit from his spray-paint canister, inhaling it as deeply as he would a fat woman’s vapors. “What if… what if we just picked all supports?”
“Bro…” says Muggsy, reeling backwards in his gamer chair, as a wet plop marks the use of his Razer-brand shitbucket. “That’s like… the best idea you’ve ever had, bro. Supports are so strong early… how do we lose?”
And then they lost because they picked mid Jakiro right alongside safelane Wyvern with some sort of fucked up Windrunner offlane. I’m going to put exactly as much time into reviewing this game as they did into their drafting — which is to say, not much.
The saga of picking terrible heroes in terrible positions goes on for the second game in the series, where Longoria presumably rolled his gut across the keyboard and let fate pick his hero for both himself and his mid. This is pretty clearly some clown shit. I wonder if Bearcat is frustrated at all with this week; I’d be kind of annoyed to get an easy 2–0 off people who just decided to take a week off and play completely brainlessly. Free playoff security, I guess.
MVP: Whoever sold Muggsy team their off-brand crack.
LVP: Whoever the hell was drafting for Muggsy on off-brand crack.
PREDICTIONS: I think Muggsy is trying to self-sabotage so he doesn’t actually have to stick around and do playoffs. Bearcat is, of course, secure.
Erock vs For the Thrills (2–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6253618448
I’m incredibly happy to look at this first game because finally for once in my fucking life I have seen a core Undying succeed. I can die a happy man, now, after going 0–10 in my own core Undying endeavors right beforehand. The net worth graph for this game is pretty damn weird, but I do notice that while Thrills team managed to get quite a few pickoffs consistently, it looks like they lost most of their actual fights — which means that by the time Erock’s heroes finally came online and started seeking out fights, they were effectively goners. You could argue that Thrills stack simply missed their window and didn’t group and fight early enough, but it’s hell to fight into Undying. Realistically, I think they needed to go harder on pickoffs and split push to continue to exploit their pickoff effectiveness. I didn’t watch the game, as usual, so I may be talking out my ass, but that’s what the stats are telling me.
Only one of these games was ticketed. Here’s the other one.
MVP: Every Game is Unwinnable has made me incredibly happy.
LVP: My man Guts is out here building Radiance Doom like it’s 2013.
PREDICTIONS: Erock’s got this. Not so sure about Thrills stack; I think they need to get a 2–0 this upcoming week to be secure.
Ghost vs Corey (2–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251852594
This game 1 really looks like Corey’s team kept trying to fight, because they thought they were strong due to their early-game heroes, but kept getting punished due to many, many things coming between them and that hot Drow ass. They have a tri-core of MK, Lina, and Bara which might lead to a mental pressure to try and do things early. Thing is, when you’re running face-first into a Night Stalker and a Dawnbreaker, you are bound to encounter some issues. Meanwhile, Ghost on Drow is just happily farming his ass off until he’s ready to fight — and by the time he’s joining the fight, the rest of the game starts looking pretty impossible. I think for Corey, this was a poorly-executed early game draft that wasn’t coherent enough beyond “RUN AT THEM” to have any real success.
Ghost’s team then turned it on its head and showed them how to properly execute an early-game draft. Normally, I don’t think anyone likes seeing an Alchemist pick, given the inherent greed of it, but it undeniably worked in Ghost’s favor this game. Between that and a Nature’s Prophet shoving in lanes, there’s no room for Corey to maneuver in. Clinkz doesn’t do as much pickoff as he used to, and neither Puck nor Doom really have enough control to be able to properly start a fight before Prophet can tp in. This is all ignoring the fact that Alch’s lane and farm went well enough that he had a Blink and a Radiance by minute fucking 14. Run the hell away from that shit, good god. This is the price you pay for not having enough pickoff for an Alch.
MVP: Honestly, Ghost deserves the hell out of it. I’ve been trashing him all season and he’s finally shaped up.
LVP: Arctan, on the other hand, has forgotten how to play non-Beastmaster heroes, and has mutely resolved to just pick grief offlaners.
PREDICTIONS: I dunno — I’m actually feeling pretty good about Ghost’s team. I think they’re secured playoffs, but I’m not sure. Corey stack has some serious draft or play issues, so I’m not sure if they’ll squeak in.
Alaska vs DrUndoneJin (1–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251880558
Man, what the fuck is with this week? Third one so far with a single ticket. Bastards.
There was an Anti-Mage game earlier that didn’t work out because the rest of his team was incapable of playing Dota before 30 minutes into the game; Alaska is smart enough to recognize the problem here and drafted extremely active heroes with the Anti-Mage. Viper, Brewmaster, and Bara can all run around quite effectively with minimal items, which leaves the door open for Anti-Mage to have some breathing room. There’s a beautiful moment on the net-worth graph where Dire has a slight lead and then just a fuckton of deaths. You can just feel the “I HAVE FINISHED FARMING” moment — I’m betting that right there is when AM finally decided to start taking fights. Hats off to actually knowing your timing; Jin’s team tried a similiar idea but TA wasn’t able to close the deal before AM started fighting.
MVP: Alaska. Well-executed drafting is always nice to see.
LVP: Both captains for not ticketing a fucking game. It’s not that hard! It’s like, three clicks! Dammit!
PREDICTIONS: Hard to tell without seeing the game 2. I think both of these teams could squeak into playoffs, but if Alaska 2–0'd that’d give them a little more breathing room.
Majka vs thamaestro (1–1)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251848790
I don’t know if it was intentional to have the Mars vs the OD in this game; this looks to me like some sort of fucked up lane dodge where they really did not want to run a DP mid into an OD. Frankly, I can’t see why; Mars mid is far, far worse for the hero in question, and even if DP had an okay game as a result Majka’s lane got so completely fucking trashed that he never recovered. Having an early lead like that means that Maestro is a lot more free to run around the map and secure his Ursa and his Centaur (who built a fuckin’ Radiance like the goddamned specimen that he is) a much easier game. Honestly, I think this is a lane swap gone bad, because the alternative is to believe that Majka’s draft is breathtakingly stupid or arrogant.
As relieving as it is to see that Majka pulled his shit together for a game 2, the fact that I’m seeing another DP offlane on the same hero makes me think that they wanted the Mars mid and just refused to swap lanes — so we’re gonna go with stupidity on that game 1. Majka actually had a decent lane this game, due to last-picking a Viper like a fucking coward, so the fact that DP had an excellent game was far more relevant in this game 2. Their lanes were a lot stronger for the game and they rolled a lot harder. Also of note is the fact that Maestro built a Dagon immediately after his Hood on Necro, which, while ballsy as fuck, is not a particularly good item build.
MVP: Profer kind of makes me want to try out this offlane DP technology.
LVP: Majka’s last-pick of Viper is sheer, unrelenting cowardice. I need to make a ranked list of cowardly last picks so I can properly express my annoyance. Another time.
PREDICTIONS: Honestly, I think Majka had this series if they didn’t fuck up their lanes in game 1 — they can do it. Maestro’s stack has some fucking weird item choices on multiple players, so they might be gooning.
Reedy vs Dezerted (2–0)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6251892296
I believe that Reedy needs to go 4–0 between this week and the next to make playoffs (maybe 1–1 next week) so this 2–0 is off to a good start. Honestly, this draft in game 1 has solidified my thinking that I need to try out offlane DP, because Camelfarmer absolutely cleaned house with it. Also of interest is the fact that we’re seeing the first Magnus of the week in this first game from Dez’s team; I think the urge to play Magnus after TI10 has finally died down in the offlaner community. Frankly, it just looks like every lane from Dez’s side ate shit. Tiny and Magnus isn’t a particularly powerful lane, and Jugg as a hero isn’t particularly strong right now, so when faced with Reedy’s lineup charging at them like fuckin’ lunatics they just folded. Dez did his best, but alas, it was not to be.
Game 2 is just wack as hell. This is a last pick Arc Warden that pretty much singlehandedly won the game, which isn’t exactly surprising. What is surprising is Dez’s team, which has pretty much no way to ever start a fight — and when you’re faced with a Sand King and a Nyx who can start fights, it’s really hard to do, well, anything. The early picks of Shadow Fiend and Undying just confuse me. I guess by this point Dez has just decided to do whatever the hell he wants, since he’s sure as hell not making playoffs. In either case, Camelfarmer took serious advantage of the utter lack of control from Dez and just farmed the game to death. Hopefully this is the last Arc Warden I’ll be seeing this week.
MVP: Where the hell did Camelfarmer pull this shit from?
LVP: Sunshineduck’s 4 play is about as effective as homeopathy.
PREDICTIONS: Who knows? Maybe Reedy can actually make a miracle run to playoffs. That’d be fuckin’ exciting, wouldn’t it? Dez, unfortunately, is straight-up doomed.
CAPTAIN GOTARD vs Bestpinoza (2–0)
We’re down in the belly of the beast now, where teams are quite bad and Dota starts to make less and less sense to us poor analysts. In this case, I’m supposed to analyze a mid Wyvern that apparently dragged itself out of last patch playing vs an offlane Jakiro that built damage. How the fuck do you analyze this? At a guess, I’d say that Gotard decided to draft exclusively around whether or not a core could hit buildings, given that he also drafted two other heavy-pushing heroes. But if that were the case I’d expect the game to be over a little sooner than 45 minutes. So, what happened in that middle ground? There are some things man was simply not meant to know. I draw the curtain on this game, troubled and full of grim thoughts.
Game 2 makes even less fucking sense. Style had a good game, and appears to have carried. What the hell am I supposed to say about that? I’ve spent seven full weeks now taking a shit on him and his ability to play position 1 whenever possible, and then apparently he gets Troll and suddenly he’s actually capable of playing Dota? The fuck? Granted, Slardar vs Troll is an absolutely terrible matchup for the Slardar, and a Skywrath last-pick is something that I’d question in other circumstances, but I have an agenda here and his performance conflicts with that. Dumpster Dota is something else. You never really know what you’ll be able to dig out of the trash.
MVP: Whoever the hell was drafting for Gotard should take his meds, but I fear him until he does.
LVP: Pinoza just had absolutely no say in how either game went. Someone check to see if he hung himself.
PREDICTIONS: If Gotard makes playoffs, I’m breaking my keyboard over my knee on video.
Guardian_MSSB vs Intergalactic Pornstar (???)
Just when I thought I wouldn’t get to make any more BYE jokes because teams had disbanded, the shittiest two teams in the division forget to ticket their games. The saga continues!
MVP: My prof gave us an extra few days on our project, which is the only reason I’m writing this at all.
LVP: That son of a bitch who screwed up my name at Starbucks.
PREDICTIONS: Week 8 is gonna be some shit.